Could computer someday predict future?

https://gamesandtehories.blogspot.com/

Kimmo Huosionmaa

In Isaac Asimov's book, "the Foundation" is the fictional or hypothetical thing, known as "psychohistory" This thing s actually the way to predict the behave of billions of humans by using similar mathematical formulas, what are used to calculate the movements of the giant gas masses. The idea of psychohistory would be that those computers would collect all data, about what has been happened in history, and then use that data to predict the future. In those predictions is used similar software what is used in astronomy and meteorology for predict the large mass of gas.

Mathematical formulas, what is used in this action would be given the predictions with the large mass of humans. The reason for that is the single individual would have too many transformers, and that makes single persons or individuals very hard to predict. When we are thinking of clouds, we cannot predict the place of single waterdrop, but meteorological computer programs can predict quite well the place of the cloud. What bigger is the gas mass, the sharper is the result, what calculations would give about the prediction of the gas mass.

The idea is similar than in the rivers. We have hard to predict the place of the individual water molecule, but the prediction of the water line, what goes in the river is quite easy. Same way is easy to predict the route of water if the dam would collapse. When we are transferring this thing to sociology, we must think the ants. It's very hard to know, what single individual Ant would do next, but when we see the Ant group, what is looking for food for their group, we can predict quite good, how those bugs would act.

This is the idea of psychohistory. Individual human prediction is hard to predict, but the large groups of humans can predict quite easy because controlling large groups is very hard. When large groups of people would be released the stopping and controlling those groups is hard. But the predictions about their behavior or direction, where that group is going is very easy. And this thing has caused the thoughts, that there are plans to make that kind of experiments.

Here we must say, that this kind of systems would give sharper predictions for the long time period than the short period. Here we are talking about the thing, that the common prediction can be sharp, but then that thing disappears in the jungle of single cases. This thing is like a highway. We don't know every turn of the road, but we know where the road is going. This is the thing in that kind of attempt to predict the future. Using computers make possible to collect and handle multiple variables, and compile them with together.

About the book "Hidden Figures" (Margot E. Shetterly)

https://gamesandtehories.blogspot.com/

Kimmo Huosionmaa

In 1960's NASA hired black American female teachers to make calculations for the Moon program, and those women were in the key role to making the moon flight possible, we must realize that this book is not telling the stories about the women who made an extremely important job for NASA. It tells the story that there are more men and women who are played in the key role in many fascinating and awesome missions on Earth. Those women were in the key role in ending the racial separation, and the advancing equality between genders. In the modern day, every position of the persons should depend on the personal skills, without the influence of gender or the color of the skin. 

The technical staff is not many times mentioned in the texts, what are told about space- and other programs. But when we are going to deep inside those missions, and the history of calculations, we are facing the thing, that in those times, there were no calculators, and the major question is that who makes those calculations, what is always needed for many technical missions. 

Many of those men and women, who made the atomic bomb possible in the "Project Manhattan" are ever mentioned in the stories about this weapon. And in the history of Cryptology, there are no mentions, how the formulas and calculations of the Enigma's positions were made. If some persons are saying that computers are making the calculations, that person forgets something. 

The calculation formulas are always made by the programmer or mathematician, and then everything would be perfect. But without those formulas, the computers are unavailable to make calculations. Even the computers have the most powerful processors in the world, they have no capacity for productive thinking, and they need a man to make those formulas for the calculations. 

There were many claiming that NASA used also autistic persons to make those formulas, what was very important for the Apollo program. If the main motor would not be started precisely right time, the spacecraft would be crushed to Moon or Earth, or it could fly pass the object. Those things were very important for Apollo mission successful passing. 

Apollo-astronauts made the awesome job, but there were many people, whose names were ever mentioned. Those persons worked for motors, airlocks, ventilates and electronics. Many people in the world have ever seen the names of those persons, whose successful work was addicted to those formulas.