The AI can help to predict "black swans", low-probability, high-risk events such as earthquakes, and pandemics.

The AI can help to predict "black swans", low-probability, high-risk events such as earthquakes, and pandemics. 

The term black swan means extremely extraordinary. But possible cases have a great influence on the things that are happening. So the "black swan" is a low-probability but high-risk event. Sometimes those "black swans" are positive. And that means the terms "high-effect or high influence" can replace the term "high-risk". Two of the black swans are, of course, an alien invasion and large-scale nuclear accidents. 

Nuclear accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima are things that are done. But the things that went wrong should store in the database. And the AI can tell the crew that uses the nuclear reactor that "you are acting like in Chernobyl". In the case of Chernobyl, nobody mentioned to the staff that the reactor was poisoned with Xenon, and then a couple of more mistakes caused that the reactor exploded. 

The mistake caused the Fukushima nuclear disaster. But the authorities made that mistake a long time before the tsunami. While the position of the Fukushima nuclear plant was chosen nobody predicted tsunamis. Those giant waves are quite often on the coast of Japan, but for some unknown reason, nobody thought that they could be dangerous for nuclear plants. 

The tsunamis are not "black swans" in Japan. Another thing that caused the problems was that the power cannot deliver to Fukushima nuclear power plant from outside. And the tsunami caused that the auxiliary power of the nuclear plant couldn't start. So the power plant was was without electricity and that caused the melting of the nuclear reactors. The protective building around the reactor collapsed. And nobody couldn't use the emergency buttons inside the reactor hall because they were buried below the garbage. 

The most well-known "black swan" event was the 9/11 attack in 2001. The terrorists flew the highjacked aircraft against World Trade Center. That thing caused "only" local disasters. The 4000 people died but the psychological influence affect the entire world. The thing is that the COVID-19 is a similar"black swan"-effect. The pandemics caused the lockdown situation and the great financial losses. About 3-10% of people needed hospital care but the influence is much larger. And there was no warning about that kind of threat. The pandemics were a well-known threat, but the COVID-19 surprised everybody. 

The AI could use to search data that is collected from those cases to find "what should do other ways in future"? And then it can search for things that allowed the COVID-19 to break through the wall and cause pandemics. 

But when we are thinking about things like earthquakes and pandemics we must ask: "how to predict them"?. If we can predict and prepare those things. That thing makes very big benefit for the planning of the future. if we can predict pandemics or tsunamis, we could make our environment safe. 

When we are trying to predict that kind of thing. we might use AI for that kind of process. The AI can collect every possible data from similar cases from history. And that kind of thing can help to find similar things in nature or social environment. That caused the last catastrophe. 

When people want to make a computer program that predicts the earthquake they should collect things like was there some special smell, did the animals behave someway differently? And then things like what kind of seismic activity happened before the "big one" the most destructive earthquake. 

In the cases of tsunamis, the programmers can collect the things. Like what the water looked like before that thing happened? There are also things like seismic and meteorological data that can uncover the coming disasters. The thing is that collecting all possible data can help to predict the next disaster. 

Things like meteorological events are happening. When the deep-sea earthquakes are shaking the sediments. That is releasing gas into the air. Also before the volcano is erupting, it sends a massive mass of gas to the upper atmosphere. And that thing is visible in the satellites. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl_disaster

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_nuclear_disaster

https://interestandinnovation.blogspot.com/

Making inquiries is one kind of skill.

For making inquiries we need data. And the target group for inquiries. Registers which involves data of things. Like customers who have the guarantee left. The thing is what data the database is involving is the same. 

The database of the source group is involving the limit. If the forms of the inquiries are sent to a too-large group of people nobody has time to sort and handle the data. AI can be a powerful tool for that thing. The system can filter the forms away.

If the form has been open for too short a time that makes it suspicious. When we are thinking about the form that has been open for about 15 seconds and which involves 20 questions, we might ask how good and useful data that from gives? When we want to make inquiries, we must understand that only valid and qualified data is the thing that brings useful information. 

This kind of database can use in many things. And one of them is when the guarantee ends. Those persons would get an offer to expand their support. 

But in the cases like some associations, the membership registers can use for testing. How satisfied the association has been to its members. The thing is that the best way to ask that thing is to make inquiries. But the thing is that if the association wants new members. The interesting thing is why some new member is involved in the association. 

And then if the maker of the inquiry wants the forms can send to the young and old members. And the thing that gives an effect to those inquiries is that what if the forms can target the oldest and youngest members. That kind of thing makes it possible to analyze how the motive to join the association has changed. 

The thing that the maker of inquiry needs is age. If we want to investigate the attitudes of certain age people. But the parameter can be how long people have been a member of the association? The different thing is how many people will answer those inquiries. 

How to get valid and useful data from forms is another thing. In the real world, people would not even read those questions. They might look that there is a draw for people who are giving their time. And there is one 50 euros gift card and 50 candy boxes for people who are spending their time on the forms. 

A major question is how to motivate people to give their time for feeding the forms? The other thing is that many people are answering inquiries. But they are not even read those questions. And does that thing produce useful information? The data on how long the form has been open by each individual. Might speak harsh language about the interest of people to spend their time in that kind of poll. 

The form might be open for about 20 seconds. And that causes a question about how well the answerers are reading those questions ar? And how useful is the data that form brings is for people who are making those surveys?

The thing that can make things like making inquiries easier to handle is the AI-based system. The idea of this kind of intelligent phonebook is that there is a form where the user inputs data like age limits of the target groups. And another necessary thing. 

Then that system can pick the needed data from the database and then send the E-mail to the target group. The AI can boost the use of the database. And if that database is connected to other applications this thing makes it an effective tool. 

In the place of the members of the association can be the customer register.  The system can sort data by using certain parameters. And one of them is the customers who are conveying about services or products. The thing that would be interesting to know is are those people used that product or service? 

The thing is that the serial number of the product is important, but also things like did the customer use some special offer or advantage that comes from some targeted campaigns. If there are problems with the product, which is offered in some targeted marketing campaigns. 

That thing causes interesting questions. And one of them is: does the group that uses those advantages have some kind of thing that provokes other people to give bad service?  If a certain group of people always conveys there should be discussing what causes that thing. 

A couple of words about COVID-19

The fact is that we are doing what we are doing. We cannot know what happens if we have done something another way. And that is the only sure thing. There is no way to predict what kind of case is the new pandemic. And another fact is that we can say one thing about this pandemic. The fact is that we should update our orders and laws to answer the challenges that this kind of thing will bring somewhere in the future. 

The regulations that COVID-19 causes will remove soon. But the thing is that COVID-19 gave a lesson. And we must analyze the data that is collected from this situation. The COVID-19 gave us the lesson that even we want we are not masters of nature. We tried to remove that virus and we must say that we had 80% success. But in the case of epidemics only one "red-actor" is enough. Only one person who is infected can start the epidemics. And that makes epidemics very hard to predict. 

So when the data is analyzed. We must try to figure what was a success. What went wrong. And what we should improve for the next pandemics. The strategy could be to deny that viruses can cross the border. But in this case, that virus can cross the border.  

We must have some kind of strategy for that case. The vaccines are preventing. The vaccine requires the virus that is used to make it. And laboratories cannot produce a vaccine against every virus on Earth. Another thing is that the virus has a very high ability to transform its DNA. That means that the next pandemic virus is not possible even exists yet. 

If the antiviral medicals cannot have an effect. There is only one method for people who are already infected. That method is so-called controlled epidemics. That thing should guarantee that there is enough nursery capacity for infected people. 

Maybe the next virus is uprising and are we wiser? The fact is that pandemics might turn more common when people are traveling to exotic countries. Things like artificial intelligence can try to predict what kind of virus or threat is coming next. And we can comfort ourselves that most of the viruses that are transferring between individuals through the air are coronavirus. 

The two-layer membrane and complicated structure are making the spread of the virus slower than deadlier filovirus. The filovirus is not transferring so long-distance as coronavirus. The problem is that the DNA or RNA of the coronavirus is harder to isolate than the single-layer virus. And that makes it harder to detect the new virus population. 

And the layer antigens of the virus can be the same in the outer core with COVID-19. But the inner core of the virus has different antigens. And this means that vaccine creation is difficult against those viruses. The fact is that nobody knows what the next pandemic virus looks like. 

The AI can detect new viruses or predict the transformation of the DNA by calculating the possibilities of how the base pairs of the DNA can order. So that AI can calculate the permutation of the DNA base pairs. But the problem is that the virus DNA can have different lengths and number of base pairs. The number of base pairs can change when the virus goes through the species. And even the best AI is helpless if it doesn't have the DNA for analysis. 

The virus samples must collect systematically that the dangerous virus mutations can detect. Or the better thing would be that the transformation of the viruses can detect soon as possible. And that helps to detect the viruses that can cause epidemics. 

In the case of fast-spreading pandemics. Is very important to start vaccine production. But the effect of the vaccine must confirm and it should be strong enough. If the immune reaction is too weak that can turn the situation worse. There is the possibility that too weak an immune reaction would breed the virus variants that are more resistant than the original virus. 

The journalistic attitude to those viruses is interesting. The thing is that the stories where people are turning zombies are not very nice to read. And the worst thing in the case of pandemics is the panic. When people are starting to pack in the same space they are not able to keep safe distances. 

If there are vaccines people should take them or they mean nothing. The vaccines are like lifevests. They are effective only when people are taking them. If people do not take vaccines,  well the vaccine in the freezer does not have an effect. If there are vaccines and people don't want to use them. There is nothing that researchers can do. 

That means the virus is infecting more people than otherwise. The last thing is that there is no power of limits and orders. If people are not following orders they mean nothing. And that is the thing that we must realize when we are defending ourselves against pandemics. 

We can make nice models and simulations. But if we cannot turn them into practice those exercises and models mean nothing. Following those orders is also important. The plans might be good. But if the practice fails that means that the operation fails. 

https://scitechdaily.com/18-months-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-are-we-doing-anything-right/

https://scitechdaily.com/ai-may-predict-the-next-high-risk-virus-to-jump-from-animals-to-humans/

Image:()https://scitechdaily.com/ai-may-predict-the-next-high-risk-virus-to-jump-from-animals-to-humans/

()https://kimmoswritings.blogspot.com/

Selling of data is big business

https://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.com/

Kimmo Huosionmaa

Selling data for commercial actors is big business in the modern world. The data, what is sold is coming from mobile devices, computers and net applications like Facebook and Google. But for working correctly computers need the operating system, what also can be synchronized to the web. And this makes the collecting data problematic. The operating systems are collecting data from the network, and send it to the organization, what controls the operating systems. This data is used to developing new and more secure solutions for the operating systems. What makes this so problematic?


The data, what is collected by operating systems, and sold to some commercial makers, is lost from some other actor's data. And that's why the news about the data collecting is so problematic. If some commercial maker would buy the data from Microsoft or Google the other actors leave without that contract. And also other media companies like CNN wants to sell the data, what is collected from the users of their news.


For the commercial business, the open source social media solutions cause big problems for telephone companies, because those companies would not get profits from those solutions, what uses mainly the data transmission. That means that the offers of the telephone or data network services would not get money from phone calls if every person would use only the data side of the telephone connection. This is why the social media is so problematic. Otherwise, it would collect the information, what would be sold to the commercial actors.


The entertainment business is the industrial sector, what collects information about the music and movie what people looks. And this data, what tells how many times the movie or music have been watched or listened. If the number of the time is high, the industry would start to make more that kind of stuff. But the number of clicks is not telling about the popularity of some video.


The average watching time and another kind of information are important when the contents of the videos are planning, of course, the clothes and other things must be planned carefully because it wants to please the audience, what would be wanted to buy those merchandise. And the specialists of the marketing follows the sales of those merchandises, that they can make correct videos, what increases the sell of the stuff.

The technology of the naval intelligence and recon submarines

Picture I

http://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.com/p/the-technology-of-naval-intelligence.html

Kimmo Huosionmaa

When we are talking about the delivering of the information, the U.S NAVY would not actually want that any of it vessel would not be in public more, than what is absolutely necessary. The thing is also the principle in other military forces around the world. We all know about spy planes because those vehicles are sometimes seen in the air, and that's why spy planes are the most things in intelligence, what are seen in public. But the submarines and other spy ships are more capable to get information than any spy plane can ever be. The submarines can stay at the same point in the sea even months if it uses nuclear power.


And in that position, it can record the messages, what enemy sends, and that information can be used to create new tactics against the predicted enemy. Modern submarines can also deliver drones and scuba-divers for installing the spy-systems in the underwater cables, and even the light cable can be broken. The system, what is needed is the extremely sensitive photocell, what can be put on the outer layer of the cable. This system needs absolute darkness for working, and that's why the light cells would put in the box, what would be set around the cable, and then the photocell can record the flashes inside the cable.


That data can send to the submarine by using underwater LRAD-modem or store in the USB-sticks, what can be changed by using small size underwater robots. And that data can be analyzed in the computer centers in the mainland. Those submarines can also have small size drones, what can travel to the gutter. Those systems can deliver small drones, what can flight and travel underwater, we are talking about systems that can eavesdrop houses and flats.


They can also deliver the explosives to the targeted sites, and cause very big trouble for the enemy if that ammunition would deliver to the ammunition warehouses. Modern submarines can also attack the targets with the drones, and the most modern killer robots can attack also against the sea-patrol aircraft. And those very sophisticated aircraft can also be destroyed by using the anti-aircraft missiles, what can be launched from the submerged submarine.


When we are talking about the intelligence, what the NAVY does, the U.S NAVY has also reconnaissance versions of the F/A-18 "Hornets". Those photo reconnaissance versions are named as the RF-18, and they are equipped with the camera packs and other sophisticated reconnaissance systems. This kind of tactical reconnaissance planes can be used in the similar missions as the U-2 spy planes, and the RF-18 flight altitude can be extremely high if the engine uses oxygenize or oxygen injection straight to the motor, what allows the aircraft operate in high altitude missions.

Sources:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wIbOoBtqA-I

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-most-decorated-warship-sub-uss-parche-used-for-spy-missions-2018-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T

https://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/systems/atars.htm

Picture I

https://cdni.rt.com/files/2017.10/article/59e31c17fc7e93195b8b4567.jpg

Cognitive systems and sharing information: New artificial intelligence and expert systems in battlefields and other mission-critical work

Picture I

Kimmo Huosionmaa

Pentagon is very interested to make cognitive and network-based command systems. Cognitive systems mean systems. that are learning from their mistakes, and then develop the new way to operate, in the case that they fail. This means that this kind of systems needs every information, that it can be collected, and then it would make decisions about the actions.  Those systems might not send same parts of the organization to the similar mission if they fail one of them. Cognitive systems make records for actions, what the system does, and if the system operates in the military mission, it would make new tactics for military aircraft or tanks and changing the flight altitude in attack is one thing, what can be changed, if the enemy is using lightweight anti-aircraft missiles.


The term "cognitive system" means actually hybrid systems, what are the combination of humans and supporting computer systems, what is operating as the networks. This means that any operating particle in this system would get the information straight from the sensors of another particle. And also those actors would share the information, that their sensors collect with other particles. This might help the commanders to make decisions in the middle of the critical situation, where succeed of the missions.


And in complicated situations, is time only for the right commands, and only the right commands come immediately, and those situations could be war or some special cases like the nuclear power plant accident. Those situations can happen in the seconds, and if those cases would the commanders of the situation would give wrong commands, could the result be devastating. And if the commander doesn't have the right information about the situation in the reactor and cooling system, would the nuclear power plant explode like in Chernobyl, and if the military commander would not have the right information about the situation.


That would cause terrible losses, and this is the reason, why the battlefield is full of sensors, and also people stress level and other body functions would be controlled by biosensors and action cameras, what would send the data to the headquarters. This data allows the commander make the decision of the actions. And in the combat situation the leaders of different battlegroups, like pilots, tankmen and infantry would get the information of their action cameras and other sensors to their screens.


This would be the very big advantage in the strike teams, what operates in the missions, where the situation would transform in seconds. In modern warfare, the strike force is the combination of aircraft,  ground vehicles, and infantrymen, and this makes the commanding of this system very difficult because the situations would change in seconds. And if the air strike is made too close to the ground crew, would it cause own casualties. In this case, the commander must make decisions in the seconds. And also the service for those troops would come at the right time.


Because if the combat crew is lost their ammunition,  the force would lose the combat, and that's why those systems would follow the use of ammunition and other equipment because those materials must be ordered in the combat area, and those packages could be dropped to own troops by using the parachutes. But at the same time, would that ammunition deny getting in the enemy hands, in the case that the wind blows those parachutes to another side of the front. And in those cases, the ammunition would equip with GPS-detonators, what would explode if the wrong positions.


The packages of the ammunition can be equipped with fingerprint detectors, what allows only authorized persons to open those boxes. That system can be installed in the gloves of military men, and it can also connect to the weapons, what might send the message if they are in the hands of unauthorized personnel. Those smart or computerized gloves, what are equipped with microchips would be used RFID (Radio Frequency ID) -sensor-transmitters, what would communicate with weapons and other equipment, and those smart gloves can detect if the right person uses them. Those GPS- and the fingerprint detector equipped weapons would send that information to the command center, and then the airplanes would come to destroy those weapons by bomb strikes.

Sources:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expert_system

https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-difference-between-an-expert-system-and-artificial-intelligence

Picture I

https://www.wexpayables.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AI-payment-feat-1024x463.jpg

https://sites.google.com/view/artificialexpertsystems/etusivu

Who protects citizens against protectors? (and other thoughts about international law)

luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/
luonnonihmeitakaikillamausteilla.wordpress.com/2018/04/14/who-protects-citizens-against-protectors-and-other-thoughts-about-international-law/

The problem of the centering information in the same place is not always the bad thing

(Picture 1)

Kimmo Huosionmaa

When we are connecting out information in same databases, we will have ultimate tool to find out problems of our species. If the information, what is collected from the internet devices, governmental databases and from the marketing environment, and connect this data to our digitized DNA, we could say "goodbye" for pour privacy. In the real life the information, what is collected from different databases and compiling with the DNA will able to make the profiles of the humans.


 And this profiles would help the authorities to find if some genetic disorder will make somebody violent. In the real life, this might mean, that the data, what is compiling with the media, what convicted criminals use,  can be used to make the database, what allows to track potential serial killers from the society, and this would give the ultimate tool for authorities, to deny those persons make any crimes.


In this scenario, the DNA of the hard violent criminals will compile, and if there would be same structures, that would help to find potential killers from the society. This can also make possible to abort those persons before they even born. The same method can be used by selecting the military or police operators in training. If there will be the same structures in DNA in every person, who was noticed to unable to serve in those systems, they could deny before the training begins, and that would be the humanitarian solution because there would be no disappointments.


The collecting all information from the persons, and putting that data in the same place will give the ultimate tool also for criminals. If some person has some allergies, and this person might work as the lawyer, somebody would give this person the food, what will launch allergic reaction. This thing could give very good benefit to discussions.


Digitally stored  DNA can be used as the making new copies of the genomes by using nanotechnology. This will make possible to make twin brother or -sister to some person. In this scenario, the scientists will make identical twins, who will get to the world in different time. This thing can be used to investigate the influence of genomes for personal behavior.  The cloning technology will allow us to make the fascinating situation possible, that some scientist will make copy about self, and then grow the copy of this person. In this hypotheses, the person is a parent for the clone.

Sources

Picture 1

https://media.scmagazineuk.com/images/2017/01/26/thinkstockphotos518142550_1141939.jpg?format=jpg&zoom=1&quality=70&anchor=middlecenter&mode=pad

https://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.fi/

http://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.fi/p/the-problem-of-centering-information-in.html

What means the analytical form of the "big data"?

http://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.fi/p/what-means-analytical-form-of-big-data.html

http://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.fi/p/what-means-analytical-form-of-big-data.html

Think always, why some service is so cheap?

Kimmo Huosionmaa

Is cheap service also safe is a question, what must be asked when man or woman faces very cheap service. They must ask why some services are so cheap? Every businessman must get profit from their services, so he must keep so high price, that he or she will get enough money to live with that business. When we meet cheap services, must we ask about one good question, and that is, “Is that service some kind of honeypot”. Marks of good service are excellent work methods, good equipment, open marketing and of course nice and polite service without any covert lists what is hiding in the service desk.

Cheap style place, where feels absolutely necessary to make some kind of crimes. That kind of places acts like some carnivorous plants. They put the bait for criminals to catch those people. One identification mark for that type of action is that place is like made for some criminal activities.

And there is sometimes stuff, what mission is to troll out criminals to work more openly. That makes them make mistakes, and tell lots of things about their gangs for those operators. Those places are calling as “kill houses”. They are equipped with microphones and net surveillance tools. That material is collecting the governmental and private organizations what missions are sometimes illegal.

When some organization is collecting surveillance data from the target person, it will not use it against anyone. The data itself is a weapon which effectiveness will depend on people. Normally professional intelligence organizations do not use data against anyone. When they choose the target for their operations, the target must have something that is interesting in their opinion.

If some intelligence organization will use the information against normal people, it’s “kill house” will be uncovered and will become useless. That’s why they must choose their target very carefully. The target must have information, what that organization wants. Normal thieves don't work like this. Normally they use single data collecting operation and clean the places.

They don’t blackmail any person for years. So if somebody is collecting information about bank directors or somebody else, they might want information. Information what they want might be accounts where the money comes from government or some military and high-tech companies, which products are wanted in every conflict area.

Weapon technology is normally classified, and some mobile solutions are denied to take outside EU because it can use as a military support system. And that kind of technology is interested in intelligence. Also, some security solutions are interested in private spy organizations, because that data can be sold to other criminals.

https://crisisofdemocracticstates.blogspot.fi/