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An algorithm predicts future crimes in a week with 90% of accuracy.



SciFi writer Isaac Asimov introduced the AI that can predict the future in his "The Foundation" novels. The idea of that kind of AI is that it compares the circumstances in history, with things that happen just now. The idea is that similar cases cause similar reactions without depending on when those things happen. 

The "psychohistory" was the term that Asimov used about this thing. And that thing has based the idea. The reactions of a large mass of people can calculate easier than a single individual. The idea is similar to STP (Standard Temperature and Pressure) calculations. The movements of the large gas masses are easy to calculate. 

But calculations of the place of the individual molecules are difficult because there are so many variables. Same way prediction of the behavior of a single person is difficult because there are so many uncertain variables. 

The accuracy of those calculations and predictions depends on how many parameters the system can use. Things like DNA samples and knowledge of medicines can help to make calculations that can make predictions of the behavior of a large group of people more accurate than a single person. 

If we think that some hall is full of people we can manipulate their behavior. When somebody pushes the fire alarm we might be sure that people will go to the exit door. But we cannot be sure where each person will go. We can say that most people will take let's say exit number one if they are close to that exit. 

But what selection makes the person who stands middle of the room? And there is the same distance to all that exists. Some variables can make this type of prediction "easy". They are basing statistics on which side the right-handed person will turn in a similar situation. 

Those statistics can give a hint of where the right or left-handed person will turn. But then we must say that the statistics are not given the right answer. They are just giving a model of the probability of how a certain person will act. 

And now the developers of AI have created an algorithm that can predict crimes with 90% accuracy. There is the possibility that things like news about crimes affect the real crimes that are happening in a certain area. Sometimes criminals want to hide their crimes from statistics of crimes that other people are making. And that's why they are searching areas where some crimes are usual. So putting a highlight on some crime type people can affect crimes that are happening in a certain area. 

This is one of the most fantastic things that have ever been created for AI. The ability to predict crimes is one step toward "psychohistory". The term means that the AI tries to predict the behavior of a large mass of people. 


https://scitechdaily.com/ai-algorithm-predicts-future-crimes-one-week-in-advance-with-90-accuracy/


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Asimov

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludwig_Boltzmann

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_(fictional)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_temperature_and_pressure


Image: https://scitechdaily.com/ai-algorithm-predicts-future-crimes-one-week-in-advance-with-90-accuracy/


https://miraclesofthequantumworld.blogspot.com/

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